We’re going to focus on poker preflop defense frequencies and hand ranges played by Pluribus. In order to look properly at defense strategy, we need to consider both the position of hero in defense and the position of villain who opened RFI. That’s where we wished Pluribus had played 1M hands and not just 10K hands.
Indeed when we get to this level of detail, we’re down to about 300+ hands in each scenario and this does not allow to look seriously at ranges. It is good to stat the frequencies though. So we’re going to look at all these frequencies first, and then look at ranges but withour consideration for villain position. These ranges are just pointers to help us see what hands Pluribus calls with, or 3 bets with… and mixes up, using our own judgement to infer what hands are played against what villain opening position.
We’ll have a quick view on average 3bet sizings, but will keep detailed analysis for another post.
Detailed frequencies of preflop defense
So we show the number of hands the data is based on. Obviously can’t do hand ranges for these, but frequencies should be pretty good. In theory, we’d need to also compare that to opening size, but again this will make the data sets way too small.
I split the ranges in only 3 categories: IP (in position), SB, and BB. They are a bit confusing to study but combined with the above frequencies, we should have decent ideas.
Legend for reading the charts:
Defense hand range in position
Defense range from SB
Defense hand range from BB
Key learnings for poker preflop defense
By combining detailed frequencies and overall hands played, we can infer a better view of the “probable” detailed poker ranges from Pluribus. And we see a lot more variation in call, 3bet and fold than what most players do. IE a wider range for a fairly low frequency.
HJ vs LJ preflop defense
So we have 3.3% calls and 5.4% 3bet. That is 44 tuples for calls and 72 for 3bets, so a total of 116 tuples .
Hands actually played:
So we need a total of 116 tuples. AA-77 are obviously played even if many pairs not seen here. Probably most suited Aces (A6s and A2s folded) , QJs, K9s and lower is folded. So are Q9s and lower, J9s and lower, T9s, 98s, 87s, AJo and lower etc.
So we have a total of 116 + KK, JJ, TT, 99, 88, 4 more suited Aces so 162 tuples. A good chunk of them have to mix with folds to get to 116 tuples.
So the overall range would be:
- 77+ with a combination of 3bets and calls. Note that QQ is a call, and 77 is a 3bet in the hands played
- A2s+ with a mix of call, 3bet, and fold .
- KTs+, QTs+, JTs mixing 3bet and call
- AKo, AQo mixing 3b and call, KQo probably 3bet and fold
- 76s and 65s mixing 3bet and call
CO vs LJ preflop defense
With 8.7% tuples, we still need 116 tuples. Here are the hands actually played
So we have more or less the same range as for HJ vs LJ. Maybe 54s and 66 added. We also get confirmation that pairs are sometimes a call sometimes a 3bet, look at 88 and JJ. Also confirmation that low suited connectors are a mix including fold sometimes, same for suited Aces below ATs or A9s…
CO vs HJ preflop defense
So we gradually increase the range, now we need 179 tuples.
So now the range adds lower pairs and K9s as a 3bet. We keep seeing pairs mixed between call and 3bet (like 55 here) and some folds for 44. Everything else much the same, we just get more tuples by having less folds on the range, but always with the same hands, ie KQ0 , bad Axs and lowest pairs and connectors.
Button vs LJ preflop defense
So we now need close to 200 tuples with twice as many calls as 3bets. In other words significantly less 3bets than from earlier position.
Again we see pairs 3bet or called, and the lower pairs sometimes folded. Below 55, probably fold, Pluribus didn’t get 44, but did fold 33.
We add to the range:
- K7s+ with the lower ones 3bet
- Q9s as a call
- J9s mixing call and fold
- ATo+ with here AT as a 3bet and AJ as a call
- We get to 200 tuples by not folding much in the mix strategy except lower pairs and the newly added tuples (J9s, ATo etc .)
- Important we call twice as much as we 3bet, I assume because of the position and less players behind
Button vs HJ preflop defense
This is the same range as Button vs LJ. It confirms 44 is played. It confirms we fold some bad Axs, and lowish pairs.
Button vs Cut-off preflop defense
We are now looking for 241 tuples, with a slighly more balanced call vs 3bet, still with more calls.
- Much less folds in the mix, here only JTo
- All pairs (don’t know for sure on 22 as not dealt)
- QJo and JTo added
- The rest is much the same
- Note again the variety of 3bets: 66, 99, ATo, JTs, QJo etc.
- And the real mix in 3bet/Call like K9s 3bet, K6s call, JJ or JTs both call and 3bet. QQ call. I get the feeling only AA and AKs, perhaps KK are 100% 3bet…